Total utility demand prediction for multi-dwelling sites considering variation of occupant behavior schedules

Based on the authors' previous works, this paper describes a new methodology that uses a bottom-up approach for accurately calculating the time series utility loads (e.g., energy, power, city water, hot water, etc.) for multi-dwelling systems, including residential buildings, residential block areas, and even the entire city. This calculation considers the behavioral variations of the inhabitants of the dwellings. The proposed method constitutes a procedure for calculating cooling/ heating loads based on a series of Monte Carlo simulations where the HVAC on/off state and the indoor heat generation schedules are varied at a time interval. A data set of time-varying inhabitant behavior schedules with a 15-minute time resolution was integrated into the model. The established model, which is called the Total Utility Demand Prediction System (TUD-PS), was integrated to estimate a multi-dwelling system, where we can accurately predict various peak demands and seasonal or annual demands. By applying this method to a typical residential building, we highlighted several advantages of TUD-PS.