Total utility demand prediction considering variation of occupants' behavior schedules applied to multi dwellings

Following the authors' previous work, this paper describes a new methodology in calculating accurately the time series utility loads (energy, power, citywater, hot water, etc.) for multi-dwelling system such as a whole residential building, residential block area, even a city by means of the so-called bottom-up approach. This calculation takes into account the behavioral variations of the dwelling inhabitants. The proposed method contains a procedure for procedure for cooling load calculations based on a series of Monte Carlo simulations where the HVAC on/off state and the indoor heat generation schedules are varied, time-step by time-step. A data set of time-varying inhabitant behavior schedules, with a 15 minute resolution, was integrated into the model. The established model, which is called the Total Utility Demand Prediction System (TUD-PS) was integrated to estimate multi dwellings system, where we can accurately argue various peak demands and seasonal or annual demands. By applying to a typical residential bmlding, we highlight several advantages of TUD-PS.