Statistical property of an excitation of plasma transition is analyzed, which takes place in a strongly turbulent state. Transition characteristics which have been studied in a deterministic picture are re-examined. Model equations of transition, with a hysteresis nature in flux-gradient relation in the presence of strong self-noise, are solved and the dynamics of plasma gradient and turbulent-driven flux is studied. The excitation probability is shown to be fairly large well below the conventional critical condition. Probability distribution function, as a function of the gradient, for an onset of the transition is obtained both for power law noise.
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