Monthly trends and seasonality of hemodialysis treatment and outcomes of newly initiated patients from the national database (NDB) of Japan

Background: The numbers of patients treated with hemodialysis (HD) in Japan are currently quantified by manual survey. As this method requires much effort from medical institutions and cannot achieve 100% response, a more practical method is required. We aimed to establish a novel method for determining the static and dynamic numbers of patients treated with HD. Methods: This observational study used the national medical billing database (termed NDB) of Japan, based on the records of the universal healthcare insurance system. Medical billing data registered in the NDB between April 2011 and March 2015 were analyzed. From 130 billion records, we extracted and analyzed records of patients who had undergone HD at least once per month. Patients’ monthly condition was classified as newly initiated HD, chronic HD, or presumed death, using conditional expressions. We also investigated renal outcome and presumed survival in newly initiated HD patients. Results: In the last month of the study period, 274,100 patients were identified as receiving chronic HD, which is estimated as > 95% of the number of these patients identified in the manual survey so far. The monthly data showed clear seasonality in the incidence of transient HD, which increased in winter and decreased in summer. Conclusion: Analysis of a large national database revealed a significant increase in transient HD in winter and decrease in summer. Applied to additional epidemiological exploratory studies or clinical research, this analytical technique would enable collection of the dynamics of almost all HD patients nationwide.