Impact of Satellite Observations on Forecasting Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

S. Noguchi, Y. Kuroda, H. Mukougawa, R. Mizuta, C. Kobayashi

研究成果: ジャーナルへの寄稿学術誌査読

5 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

The observational impacts of satellite data assimilation on extended-range forecasts of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are investigated by conducting ensemble forecast experiments. We use two Japanese novel reanalysis products: the Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55) and its subset that assimilates conventional observations only (JRA-55C). A comparative examination on the reproducibility for SSWs between the two ensemble forecasts reveals that the impact of satellite observations is significant for forecasts starting 5 days before the SSW onset, with 20% less accuracy in the JRA-55C forecasts. Moreover, some of forecasts of vortex-splitting SSWs show a sudden appearance of deep difference, which lasts over a few months in the lower stratosphere and significantly affects the surface climate. These results highlight an important role of mesospheric and upper stratospheric circulations on the onset and development of SSWs.

本文言語英語
論文番号e2019GL086233
ジャーナルGeophysical Research Letters
47
5
DOI
出版ステータス出版済み - 3月 16 2020
外部発表はい

!!!All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 地球物理学
  • 地球惑星科学一般

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