Factors predicting the need for liver transplantation in biliary atresia patients after 18 years of age

Purpose: We aimed to identify factors predicting the need for future liver transplantation (LT) at 18 years of age in patients with biliary atresia (BA). Methods: BA patients with native liver survival at > 18 years of age were retrospectively reviewed. The clinical characteristics, outcomes, hepatobiliary function, and liver fibrosis markers of native liver survivors (NLS group) were compared with patients who subsequently underwent LT (LT group). Results: The study population included 48 patients (NLS, n = 34; LT, n = 14). The male-to-female ratio, age at Kasai procedure, and type of BA in the two groups did not differ to a statistically significant extent. There was no significant difference in the MELD scores between the groups at 18 years of age. The aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), and BA liver fibrosis (BALF) scores at 18 years of age were significantly higher in the LT group. The AUCs for APRI, ALBI, and BALF were 0.91, 0.79, and 0.85, respectively. Conclusion: Adult BA patients have limited options for LT owing to the lack of donor candidates and the low prevalence of deceased donors. The elucidation of prognostic factors for LT in adulthood is important. APRI was the most useful marker in this study.