Detectability of the potential climate change effect on transboundary air pollution pathways in the downwind area of China

Long-term aerosol optical depth (AOD) datasets focused on the Pacific Ocean in the downwind area of China over a 19-year period from 2003 to 2021 were derived from satellite observations, reanalysis datasets, and numerical simulations. Considering the significant year-to-year changes in the amounts of aerosols transported from China to the Pacific Ocean during this period, we proposed a metric named R_AOD. This is defined as the AOD over the ocean relative to that near the eastern coast of China within the same latitude band (25–30°N). R_AOD was identified as a valuable metric for quantifying the long-term changes in transboundary air pollution pathways. Our analysis revealed a clear exponential decrease in R_AOD values from China toward the Pacific Ocean; this was consistent with the prevailing meteorological conditions observed over the 19-year period. However, the possible long-term changes in R_AOD due to climate change were found to be insignificant and were overshadowed by much larger year-to-year variations in the meteorological field. Additionally, significant seasonal variations in the absolute slope of the linear regression between R_AOD and longitude were observed, and there correlated with wind patterns in the lower troposphere. Elevated slope values in the spring and winter suggested a west-to-east aerosol transport facilitated by strong winds, whereas the lower slope values in summer and autumn indicated a northward aerosol movement under weaker winds. In recent years, aerosols have become less likely to be transported far eastward from the coast of China. Based on these findings, to enhance the detectability of the climate change impacts on meteorological field affecting transboundary air pollution pathways, the R_AOD metric derived using a continued long-term satellite observation of aerosols is proposed.