Attributing historical changes in probabilities of record-breaking daily temperature and precipitation extreme events

Hideo Shiogama, Yukiko Imada, Masato Mori, Ryo Mizuta, Dáithí Stone, Kohei Yoshida, Osamu Arakawa, Mikiko Ikeda, Chiharu Takahashi, Miki Arai, Masayoshi Ishii, Masahiro Watanabe, Masahide Kimoto

研究成果: ジャーナルへの寄稿学術誌査読

29 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

We describe two unprecedented large (100-member), longterm (61-year) ensembles based on MRI-AGCM3.2, which were driven by historical and non-warming climate forcing. These ensembles comprise the "Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF)". We compare these ensembles to large ensembles based on another climate model, as well as to observed data, to investigate the influence of anthropogenic activities on historical changes in the numbers of record-breaking events, including: the annual coldest daily minimum temperature (TNn), the annual warmest daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the annual most intense daily precipitation event (Rx1day). These two climate model ensembles indicate that human activity has already had statistically significant impacts on the number of record-breaking extreme events worldwide mainly in the Northern Hemisphere land. Specifically, human activities have altered the likelihood that a wider area globally would suffer record-breaking TNn, TXx and Rx1day events than that observed over the 2001- 2010 period by a factor of at least 0.6, 5.4 and 1.3, respectively. However, we also find that the estimated spatial patterns and amplitudes of anthropogenic impacts on the probabilities of record-breaking events are sensitive to the climate model and/or natural-world boundary conditions used in the attribution studies.

本文言語英語
ページ(範囲)225-231
ページ数7
ジャーナルScientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere
12
DOI
出版ステータス出版済み - 2016
外部発表はい

!!!All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 大気科学

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