A Questionnaire Survey and An Agent-based Simulation as to Consensus Building on Geothermal Development in Japan

Japan ranks in third globally in terms of the potential of geothermal power resources with 23.47 GW; in fact, it ranks in 10th with regard to installed capacity in the world. Among many bottlenecks which hinder the domestic development of geothermal power plants, oppositions from local hot spa owners have been a primary problem. Therefore, successful consensus building with them will be of vital importance to be achieved so as to make full use of geothermal resources throughout Japan. In light of this situation, with the aim to promote successful consensus building on geothermal development, this study first developed an agent-based simulation illustrating opinion formation processes among hot-spa owners toward geothermal development. Afterwards, this study conducted questionnaire survey for hot-spa owners in Oguni town to collect data on their opinions and behaviors. Then, this study carried out the agent-based simulation with the collected data in order to check out the validity of the simulation. Finally, discussion was done as to the applicability of the invented simulation. Further research should be continued to investigate the method to validate the simulation.