TY - JOUR
T1 - A Projection of Future JPCZs by WRF Dynamical Downscaling Simulations based on MIROC6 ScenarioMIP ssp585
AU - Kawano, Tetsuya
AU - Yasukiyo, Rina
AU - Kawamura, Ryuichi
AU - Mochizuki, Takashi
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2023. This is an open access article published by the Meteorological Society of Japan under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license (http://creativecommons.org/license/by/4.0).
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - Dynamical downscaling simulations of MIROC6 (the sixth version of Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) data using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were performed to investigate future changes in the Japan Sea polar airmass convergence zones (JPCZs) related to heavy snowfall events in the Sea of Japan–side region of central and northern Japan. WRF dynamical downscaling simulations showed a northward shift of JPCZs and the associated changes in precipitation distribution. Rainfall increased significantly over the central part of the Sea of Japan and in the Tohoku region. On the other hand, snowfall decreased significantly over the entire Sea of Japan. However, there was a significant increase in snowfall in the inland mountainous areas of the Tohoku region. Jet streaks shift northward in the future climate, which was confirmed in the MIROC6 data. Reflecting such future environments, WRF dynamical downscaling simulations showed that a mesoscale cyclonic circulation anomaly passing over Hokkaido from the Sea of Japan, which is not resolved by MIROC6, contributes to the northward shift of JPCZs and the associated changes in rainfall and snowfall.
AB - Dynamical downscaling simulations of MIROC6 (the sixth version of Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) data using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were performed to investigate future changes in the Japan Sea polar airmass convergence zones (JPCZs) related to heavy snowfall events in the Sea of Japan–side region of central and northern Japan. WRF dynamical downscaling simulations showed a northward shift of JPCZs and the associated changes in precipitation distribution. Rainfall increased significantly over the central part of the Sea of Japan and in the Tohoku region. On the other hand, snowfall decreased significantly over the entire Sea of Japan. However, there was a significant increase in snowfall in the inland mountainous areas of the Tohoku region. Jet streaks shift northward in the future climate, which was confirmed in the MIROC6 data. Reflecting such future environments, WRF dynamical downscaling simulations showed that a mesoscale cyclonic circulation anomaly passing over Hokkaido from the Sea of Japan, which is not resolved by MIROC6, contributes to the northward shift of JPCZs and the associated changes in rainfall and snowfall.
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U2 - 10.2151/sola.2023-014
DO - 10.2151/sola.2023-014
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85167906317
SN - 1349-6476
VL - 19
SP - 101
EP - 108
JO - Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere
JF - Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere
ER -