Theoretical aspect of prevention policies against influenza pandemic

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in Southeast Asia, Europe, and Africa have devastating consequences for poultry, and have resulted in numerous infections in humans. Although these infections from the animal reservoir continue to accumulate, the virus does not seem to spread extensively among humans. However, a genetic reassortment could occur in a human who, for example, is co-infected with avian influenza A virus and a human strain of influenza A virus. The resulting new virus might then be able to easily infect humans, spread from human to human and lead to a global pandemic. Thus, currently, a major public health concern is the next influenza pandemic, yet it remains unclear how to control such a crisis. In this chapter, by using simple mathematical models, we consider the effectiveness of intervention policies (elimination of infected birds and quarantine of infected humans) against influenza pandemic and warn about the risks of the disease spread caused by the interventions. Further, we propose strategies to mitigate the damage of the pandemic.