The Management of Unintended Consequences in Regions

Many commons play important roles in the regional life, although they often cause “social dilemmas” as well as “unintended consequences”. At first, this paper tends to arrange the forms of social dilemmas and conflicts as to the common forests (Iri-ai). The common forests has been broken up in the process of modernization. This process of change including the chain of unintended consequences and conflicts will be formulated by a time dependent Markov chain model. We examine in the model under what conditions the conversion of preferences among actors may defend the common forests from being broken up.