Strategic roadmap for optimising vehicle emission reductions and electrification

Prompted by policy support, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have become increasingly popular in many countries and economies. To ensure that vehicle electrification contributes to reduction in emissions, governments should develop appropriate transition plans that consider the lifecycle CO₂ emissions of these vehicles. In this study, we aimed to establish an emission reduction-focused transition trajectory for vehicle electrification using lifecycle optimisation. Through a Japan-centric case study spanning from 2005 to 2055, we identified an optimal fuel-type progression for car owners, underlining the potential for BEVs to be introduced in the 2030s, a decade ahead of the baseline, if higher emission reduction can be attained. Policymakers are advised to facilitate a gradual shift toward hybrid electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles that initially outperform BEVs in emissions, until a robust level of lifecycle CO₂ reduction is achieved within the automotive sector. This study contributes to the discourse by offering a strategic roadmap for maximising emission reduction through targeted vehicle electrification, making it pertinent and informative for both policymakers and stakeholders. The insights underscore the critical role of deliberate policy interventions in orchestrating a sustainable and effective transition toward a lower-emission transportation paradigm.