Revealing uninfected and infected target cell dynamics from peripheral blood data in highly and less pathogenic simian/human immunodeficiency virus infected Rhesus macaque

Since chimeric simian and human immunodeficiency viruses (SHIVs) used here, that is, SHIV-#64 and -KS661 utilize both CCR5 and CXCR4 chemokine receptors, they have broad target cell properties. A highly pathogenic SHIV strain, SHIV-KS661, causes an infection that systemically depletes the CD4⁺ T cells of Rhesus macaques, while a less pathogenic strain, SHIV-#64, does not cause severe symptoms in the macaques. In our previous studies, we established in vitro quantification system for virus infection dynamics, and concluded that SHIV-KS661 effectively produces infectious virions compared with SHIV-#64 in the HSC-F cell culture. However, in vivo dynamics of SHIV infection have not been well understood. To quantify SHIV-#64 and -KS661 infection dynamics in Rhesus macaques, we developed a novel approach and analyzed total CD4⁺ T cells and viral load in peripheral blood, and reproduced the expected dynamics for the uninfected and infected CD4⁺ T cells in silico. Using our previous cell culture experimental datasets, we revealed that an infection rate constant is different between SHIV-#64 and -KS661, but the viral production rate and the death rate are similar for the both strains. Thus, here, we assumed these relations in our in vivo data and carried out the data fitting. We performed Bayesian estimation for the whole dataset using MCMC sampling, and simultaneously fitted our novel model to total CD4⁺ T cells and viral load of SHIV-#64 and -KS661 infection. Our analyses explained that the Malthusian parameter (i.e., fitness of virus infection) and the basic reproduction number (i.e., potential of virus infection) for SHIV-KS661 are significantly higher than those of SHIV-#64. In addition, we demonstrated that the number of uninfected CD4⁺ T cells in SHIV-KS661 infected Rhesus macaques decreases to the significantly lower value than that before the inoculation several days earlier compared with SHIV-#64 infection. Taken together, the differences between SHIV-#64 and -KS661 infection before the peak viral load might determine the subsequent destiny, that is, whether the systemic CD4⁺ T cell depletion occurs or the host immune response develop.