TY - JOUR
T1 - Prediction of the Probability of Malignancy in Mucinous Cystic Neoplasm of the Pancreas with Ovarian-Type Stroma
T2 - A Nationwide Multicenter Study in Japan
AU - Ohtsuka, Takao
AU - Nakamura, Masafumi
AU - Hijioka, Susumu
AU - Shimizu, Yasuhiro
AU - Unno, Michiaki
AU - Tanabe, Minoru
AU - Nagakawa, Yuichi
AU - Takaori, Kyoichi
AU - Hirono, Seiko
AU - Gotohda, Naoto
AU - Kimura, Wataru
AU - Ito, Kei
AU - Katanuma, Akio
AU - Sano, Tsuyoshi
AU - Urata, Takahiro
AU - Kita, Emiri
AU - Hanada, Keiji
AU - Tada, Minoru
AU - Aoki, Takeshi
AU - Serikawa, Masahiro
AU - Okamoto, Kojun
AU - Isayama, Hiroyuki
AU - Gotoh, Yoshitaka
AU - Ishigami, Kousei
AU - Yamaguchi, Hiroshi
AU - Yamao, Kenji
AU - Sugiyama, Masanori
AU - Okazaki, Kazuichi
N1 - Funding Information:
This study was supported by Japan Pancreas Society and a Grant-in-Aid from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Sciences for Scientific Research (C) (Grant Number 18K08648).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.
PY - 2020/2/1
Y1 - 2020/2/1
N2 - Objective The aim of the study was to develop a formula for predicting the probability of malignancy of mucinous cystic neoplasm (MCN) of the pancreas with ovarian-type stroma. Methods A total of 364 patients were enrolled. A total score was calculated as the sum of the approximate integers of the odds ratios of the predictive factors identified by multivariate analysis. The relationship between the total score and pathological results was assessed. Results A total of 321 patients had benign MCN and 43 had malignant MCN. Five possible predictive factors were analyzed: 56 years or older, high serum carcinoembryonic antigen level, high carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level, tumor size of 51 mm or greater, and the presence of mural nodules. The total score was significantly higher in patients with malignant MCN (median, 24; range, 0-37) compared with benign MCN (median, 5; range, 0-33; P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated that the area under the curve was 0.86, and the sensitivity and specificity of the total score for discriminating malignant MCNs were 72% and 83%, respectively, using a cut-off value of 22. Conclusions The current simple formula can predict the malignancy of MCN and may thus contribute to the adequate management of patients with MCN.
AB - Objective The aim of the study was to develop a formula for predicting the probability of malignancy of mucinous cystic neoplasm (MCN) of the pancreas with ovarian-type stroma. Methods A total of 364 patients were enrolled. A total score was calculated as the sum of the approximate integers of the odds ratios of the predictive factors identified by multivariate analysis. The relationship between the total score and pathological results was assessed. Results A total of 321 patients had benign MCN and 43 had malignant MCN. Five possible predictive factors were analyzed: 56 years or older, high serum carcinoembryonic antigen level, high carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level, tumor size of 51 mm or greater, and the presence of mural nodules. The total score was significantly higher in patients with malignant MCN (median, 24; range, 0-37) compared with benign MCN (median, 5; range, 0-33; P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated that the area under the curve was 0.86, and the sensitivity and specificity of the total score for discriminating malignant MCNs were 72% and 83%, respectively, using a cut-off value of 22. Conclusions The current simple formula can predict the malignancy of MCN and may thus contribute to the adequate management of patients with MCN.
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U2 - 10.1097/MPA.0000000000001475
DO - 10.1097/MPA.0000000000001475
M3 - Article
C2 - 32011526
AN - SCOPUS:85079358190
SN - 0885-3177
VL - 49
SP - 181
EP - 186
JO - Pancreas
JF - Pancreas
IS - 2
ER -
