TY - JOUR
T1 - On the Mechanisms of the Active 2018 Tropical Cyclone Season in the North Pacific
AU - Qian, Y.
AU - Murakami, H.
AU - Nakano, M.
AU - Hsu, P. C.
AU - Delworth, T. L.
AU - Kapnick, S. B.
AU - Ramaswamy, V.
AU - Mochizuki, T.
AU - Morioka, Y.
AU - Doi, T.
AU - Kataoka, T.
AU - Nasuno, T.
AU - Yoshida, K.
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors thank Nat Johnson and Mitch Bushuk for their suggestions and comments. This work was partly supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFC1505804) and China Scholarship Council (File 201808320271). The NICAM simulations were conducted on K Computer (Proposal hp180182) and post-processed on the data analyzer at JAMSTEC. The Earth Simulator supercomputer was used for the simulations with MRI-AGCM. The data analyzed in this paper are available online (at ftp://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/1p/users/Hiroyuki.Murakami/2018TC/FLOR-NICAM-MRI/).
Funding Information:
The authors thank Nat Johnson and Mitch Bushuk for their suggestions and comments. This work was partly supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFC1505804) and China Scholarship Council (File 201808320271). The NICAM simulations were conducted on K Computer (Proposal hp180182) and post‐processed on the data analyzer at JAMSTEC. The Earth Simulator supercomputer was used for the simulations with MRI‐AGCM. The data analyzed in this paper are available online (at ftp://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/1p/users/Hiroyuki.Murakami/2018TC/FLOR‐NICAM‐MRI/ ).
Publisher Copyright:
©2019. The Authors.
PY - 2019/11/16
Y1 - 2019/11/16
N2 - The 2018 tropical cyclone (TC) season in the North Pacific was very active, with 39 tropical storms including eight typhoons/hurricanes. This activity was successfully predicted up to 5 months in advance by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) global coupled model. In this work, a suite of idealized experiments with three dynamical global models (FLOR, Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model, and Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model) was used to show that the active 2018 TC season was primarily caused by warming in the subtropical Pacific and secondarily by warming in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, the potential effect of anthropogenic forcing on the active 2018 TC season was investigated using two of the global models (FLOR and Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model). The models projected opposite signs for the changes in TC frequency in the North Pacific by an increase in anthropogenic forcing, thereby highlighting the substantial uncertainty and model dependence in the possible impact of anthropogenic forcing on Pacific TC activity.
AB - The 2018 tropical cyclone (TC) season in the North Pacific was very active, with 39 tropical storms including eight typhoons/hurricanes. This activity was successfully predicted up to 5 months in advance by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) global coupled model. In this work, a suite of idealized experiments with three dynamical global models (FLOR, Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model, and Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model) was used to show that the active 2018 TC season was primarily caused by warming in the subtropical Pacific and secondarily by warming in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, the potential effect of anthropogenic forcing on the active 2018 TC season was investigated using two of the global models (FLOR and Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model). The models projected opposite signs for the changes in TC frequency in the North Pacific by an increase in anthropogenic forcing, thereby highlighting the substantial uncertainty and model dependence in the possible impact of anthropogenic forcing on Pacific TC activity.
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U2 - 10.1029/2019GL084566
DO - 10.1029/2019GL084566
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85074855033
SN - 0094-8276
VL - 46
SP - 12293
EP - 12302
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
IS - 21
ER -