Long-term area change of two tidal flats in Japan and its future projection due to sea level rise

Keiko Udo, Yuriko Takeda, Jun Yoshida, Akira Mano

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


This study investigates century-scale area changes of two tidal flats in Japan facing the Ariake Sea and the Yatsushiro Sea, and Tokyo Bay, and their future projections in order to estimate the effect of sea level rise due to climate change on the tidal flats. The long term area change shows notable erosion of tidal flats due to the large scale of landfill reclamation in cities for coastal development and sea reclamation in localities for farmland development, during the period of Japan's rapid growth after 1950s. The future projections using the recent sea bed topography and estimation result of sea level rise show that there is much difference between the future projections with and without consideration of vertical accretion rate. It is estimated that tidal flat erosion up to tens of square kilometers may occur in a long term even only in the study areas. Possibility of serious damage of tidal flats was indicated, though more precise estimation considering other effects such as flood characteristic change due to the climate change is needed in the future.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1975-1980
Number of pages6
JournalJournal of Coastal Research
Issue numberSPEC. ISSUE 65
Publication statusPublished - Sept 17 2013

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Ecology
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Earth-Surface Processes


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