TY - JOUR
T1 - Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers
T2 - A PDRMIP multimodel study
AU - Samset, B. H.
AU - Myhre, G.
AU - Forster, P. M.
AU - Hodnebrog,
AU - Andrews, T.
AU - Faluvegi, G.
AU - Fläschner, D.
AU - Kasoar, M.
AU - Kharin, V.
AU - Kirkevåg, A.
AU - Lamarque, J. F.
AU - Olivié, D.
AU - Richardson, T.
AU - Shindell, D.
AU - Shine, K. P.
AU - Takemura, T.
AU - Voulgarakis, A.
N1 - Funding Information:
All model results used for the present study are available to the public through the Norwegian NORSTORE data storage facility. B.H.S., G.M., and Ø.H. were funded by the Research Council of Norway, through the grant NAPEX (229778). Supercomputer facilities were generously provided by NOTUR. D.S. thanks the NASA High-End Computing Program through the NASA Center for Climate Simulation at Goddard Space Flight Center for computational resources. M.K. and A.V. are supported by the Natural Environment Research Council under grant NE/K500872/1. Simulations with HadGEM3-GA4 were performed using the MONSooN system, a collaborative facility supplied under the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme, which is a strategic partnership between the Met Office and the Natural Environment Research Council. T.T. was supported by the supercomputer system of the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-12-3) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, and JSPS KAKENHI grants 15H01728 and 15 K12190. D.J.L.O. and A.K. were supported by the Norwegian Research Council through the projects EVA (grant 229771) and EarthClim (207711/E10), NOTUR (nn2345k), and NorStore (ns2345k) projects. T.R. was supported by NERC training award NE/K007483/1 and acknowledges the use of the MONSooN system. Computing resources for J.F.L. (ark:/85065/d7wd3xhc) were provided by the Climate Simulation Laboratory at NCAR's Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, sponsored by the National Science Foundation and other agencies. Computing resources for the simulations with the MPI model were provided by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ), Hamburg. TA was supported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101).
Publisher Copyright:
©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
PY - 2016/3/28
Y1 - 2016/3/28
N2 - Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.
AB - Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.
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U2 - 10.1002/2016GL068064
DO - 10.1002/2016GL068064
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84971595207
SN - 0094-8276
VL - 43
SP - 2782
EP - 2791
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
IS - 6
ER -
