Estimation of water quality dynamics under long-term anoxic state in organically polluted reservoir by field observations and improved ecosystem model

In closed water bodies with significant organic pollution, anoxification due to thermal stratification leads to the elution of nitrogen and phosphorus from the bottom sediment and the generation of sulfide, resulting in further degradation of the water environment. This study focuses on the water quality dynamics in an organically polluted reservoir exhibiting long-term anoxification using two approaches: (1) field observations of seasonal changes in vertical profiles of dissolved oxygen, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfide and (2) construction of a water quality prediction model based on an ecosystem model incorporated with anaerobic biochemical processes. Iron and sulfate reduction occurred simultaneously because nitrate–nitrogen was reduced by denitrifying bacteria after the anoxification, and iron reduction became the main factor of the increase in ammonium–nitrogen and phosphate–phosphorus. The redox state of the bottom sediment surface, when anoxification began to occur, greatly affected the water quality dynamics caused by gradual reductive reactions under anaerobic conditions. Furthermore, the calculation accuracy of ammonium–nitrogen, phosphate–phosphorus, and sulfide was highly improved by modifying the conventional model based on the field observations. The characteristics of water quality under anaerobic conditions were sufficiently reflected in the upgraded ecosystem model. The proposed water quality prediction model could be used to quantitatively estimate the water environment dynamics in organically polluted water bodies. The model could be developed further in the future to solve the problems caused by long-term anoxification.