@article{8e93b6521f9c4a6cb4a5657804d89905,
title = "Estimating the mitigation effect of Tokai earthquake measures on housing damage: a counterfactual approach",
abstract = "This paper evaluates the mitigation effect of Tokai earthquake measures on housing damage using a counterfactual approach. It focuses on those measures that stimulate ex-ante investment in disaster prevention in the supposedly affected area, including earthquake-proof retrofitting and improved housing construction; the effect of the measures on housing losses is estimated monetarily. The study compares factual disaster damage computed using a real distribution of houses with counterfactual damage to a hypothetical housing distribution that would occur if the measures were not implemented. The key findings are: (i) the disaster mitigation effects of Tokai earthquake measures on housing amount to approximately JPY 18 billion (USD 0.18 billion) for Yamanashi Prefecture and JPY 0.26 trillion (USD 2.6 billion) for Shizuoka Prefecture, which would be at the centre of the event; (ii) a before–after comparison biases estimates of the mitigation effect; and (iii) statistically, the measures do not mitigate the housing damage predicted for an earthquake in Tokai.",
author = "Takeshi Miyazaki and Ryu Ohtani and Taichi Ohno and Tsuyoshi Takasugi and Toshihiro Yamada",
note = "Funding Information: The authors greatly appreciate the helpful comments provided by participants at the 2014 autumn seminar of the Japan Association for Applied Economics held at Chuo University, Japan, and at the 2015 seminar of the Japan Society for Disaster Information Studies held at Kofu, Japan. This work was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science's Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, No. 25590065. The results and views presented in the paper do not represent those of the authors{\textquoteright} affiliates. Any errors are the sole responsibility of the authors. Funding Information: The authors greatly appreciate the helpful comments provided by participants at the 2014 autumn seminar of the Japan Association for Applied Economics held at Chuo University, Japan, and at the 2015 seminar of the Japan Society for Disaster Information Studies held at Kofu, Japan. This work was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science{\textquoteright}s Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, No. 25590065. The results and views presented in the paper do not represent those of the authors{\textquoteright} affiliates. Any errors are the sole responsibility of the authors. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018 The Author(s). Disasters {\textcopyright} Overseas Development Institute, 2018",
year = "2019",
month = jan,
doi = "10.1111/disa.12294",
language = "English",
volume = "43",
pages = "181--205",
journal = "Disasters",
issn = "0361-3666",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "1",
}