## Abstract

This paper presents a numerical procedure to develop a hazard map for a deep-seated landslide using the stochastic response surface method considering the uncertainty of strength parameters. The following conclusions are drawn from this study; (1) Based on the parametric study of 3D slope stability analysis, the cohesion of 110kPa and the frictional angle of 35^{o} are estimated for the deep-seated landslide at Tateno area in Kumamoto prefecture caused by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, Japan. (2) The failure probability of seep-seated landslide for the foreshock and main shock of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake are estimated to be 30% and almost 100% respectively. (3) Under the situation having the uncertainty of material parameters, the stochastic response surface method using the polynomial chaos expansion is useful for developing a hazard map for the failure probability and the arrival risk of a large-scale landslide such as a deep-seated landslide.

Original language | English |
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Publication status | Published - Jan 1 2020 |

Event | 16th Asian Regional Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, ARC 2019 - Taipei, Taiwan, Province of China Duration: Oct 14 2019 → Oct 18 2019 |

### Conference

Conference | 16th Asian Regional Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, ARC 2019 |
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Country/Territory | Taiwan, Province of China |

City | Taipei |

Period | 10/14/19 → 10/18/19 |

## All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

- Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology