Attitude estimation from photometric data using Gaussian process regression

The rapid growth of resident space objects in Earth's orbit has intensified the need for advanced space situational awareness and space domain awareness to manage satellite traffic and prevent collisions. Attitude estimation is critical for accurate state propagation, as non-gravitational forces like solar radiation pressure and atmospheric drag depend on the object's attitude. This study explores using light curves, time variation of an object's brightness, to estimate a space object's attitude. Light curve inversion, traditionally used in astronomy, faces challenges when applied to resident space objects due to their non-convex shapes and specular reflections. Conventional methods for attitude estimation often assume known shape and surface parameters, which are usually unknown for space debris generated by a collision or breakup. To address this issue, this study proposes the estimation method combining Gaussian process regression with the unscented Kalman filter. This study uses Gaussian process regression for a non-parametric observation model, enhancing robustness against unknown surface parameters. Numerical examples consider a box-wing object in a geosynchronous orbit and demonstrate that the proposed method has better estimation accuracy than a conventional unscented Kalman filter. The numerical simulation results also represent the attitude estimation robust against uncertainties in surface properties, contributing to practical scenarios in space situational awareness and space domain awareness where the object parameters are unknown.