TY - GEN
T1 - A study on global solar radiation forecasting models using meteorological data and their application to wide area forecast
AU - Nomiyama, Fumitoshi
AU - Asai, Joji
AU - Murakami, Takuma
AU - Takano, Hirotaka
AU - Murata, Junich
PY - 2012
Y1 - 2012
N2 - Two models are proposed for forecasting global solar radiation. The forecasted values are used to predict the output power of photovoltaic systems installed in power systems and control the output of other generators to meet the electricity demand. One of the models is used for at least one-day-ahead demand and supply planning. The other model is used for three-hour-ahead demand and supply operation. The models are based on weather information and use descriptive statistics and binary trees respectively. The focus is on estimation of the anticipated variations in the forecasts and dealing with the nonlinearity of the relationship between the global solar radiation and the input variables. In addition, the smoothing effect of the errors is investigated and utilized when they are applied to wide area forecasting. The results show that they are promising in keeping the balance between demand and supply in power systems with photovoltaic systems installed.
AB - Two models are proposed for forecasting global solar radiation. The forecasted values are used to predict the output power of photovoltaic systems installed in power systems and control the output of other generators to meet the electricity demand. One of the models is used for at least one-day-ahead demand and supply planning. The other model is used for three-hour-ahead demand and supply operation. The models are based on weather information and use descriptive statistics and binary trees respectively. The focus is on estimation of the anticipated variations in the forecasts and dealing with the nonlinearity of the relationship between the global solar radiation and the input variables. In addition, the smoothing effect of the errors is investigated and utilized when they are applied to wide area forecasting. The results show that they are promising in keeping the balance between demand and supply in power systems with photovoltaic systems installed.
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U2 - 10.1109/PowerCon.2012.6401336
DO - 10.1109/PowerCon.2012.6401336
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84873311914
SN - 9781467328685
T3 - 2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012
BT - 2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012
T2 - 2012 IEEE International Conference on Power System Technology, POWERCON 2012
Y2 - 30 October 2012 through 2 November 2012
ER -
