堰塞坝稳定性评价方法及灾害链效应研究进展

The issues of landslide dam and dam break are the focus of current research. Landslide dam is remarkably different from man-made earth-rockfill dam because of its special formation process,inhomogeneous material composition,complex internal structure and various geometrical shapes. Currently,there is still lack of in-depth research in the analysis of entire lifecycle and the reliable method to assess rapidly the stability of landslide dam. On the basis of systematical reviews of the forming conditions,stability analysis methods,overtopping and piping collapse mechanisms,dam break floods and geological disaster chain of landslide dams,a database which contains 1 328 cases of landslide dams is built according to the bibliography compilation. Then,the triggering factors,causes,volumes distribution,morphological characteristics and lifetime of landslide dams,and the relationships between them are analyzed. According to the principle of logistic regression,a prediction model with three parameters,the length and width of landslide dam and the reservoir capacity of barrier lake,is established,and a method to rapidly evaluate the stability of landslide dam is proposed. Finally,from the perspective of disaster chain,the main problems existing in current research and the future key development directions of the whole process of river-blocking disaster are pointed out. The research results indicate that the volumes,lifetime and stability of landslide dam are closely related to the triggering factors and causes of landslide dam. The three-parameter rapid assessment method predicts the stability of landslide dam accurately. The process simulation of the whole lifecycle and development of disaster warning system for landslide dam are the key development directions in the future.